Spatiotemporal Assessment of Wind–Solar Resources for Hybrid Renewable Electrification in Western Burundi

Abstract

Burundi continues to face persistent electricity shortages due to limited generation capacity and strong dependence on climate-sensitive hydropower resources. This study aims to quantify wind and solar energy potential in western Burundi, assess their seasonal complementarity, and evaluate the feasibility of PV–wind hybrid systems for rural electrification. Long-term datasets from the Burundi Geographical Institute (2013–2020 for wind; 1977–2017 for sunshine duration) were analyzed using statistical and empirical models. Wind resources were assessed through monthly distributions, directional frequency, and wind power density (WPD), while solar potential was estimated using the Ångström–Prescott model, suitable for data-scarce contexts. Results indicate mean annual solar irradiance of ~5.3 kWh/m²/day (~1,930 kWh/m²/year) with modest seasonal variation (±10%), supporting reliable year-round PV generation. Wind exhibits strong seasonality, peaking at ~160 W/m² (Class 3) between June and October but averaging ~60 W/m² annually (Class 2), limiting standalone potential. These findings demonstrate how the complementary nature of wind and solar regimes can strengthen rural mini-grids and reduce vulnerability to hydrological variability. The study provides new evidence to guide renewable-energy planning and support progress toward universal energy access in Burundi.