Determinants of Sustainable Economic Growth in Türkiye: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach (1996–2024)

Abstract

This study investigates the relationships among real income per capita, research and development (R&D) expenditures, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), the unemployment rate (UNEMP), and inflation (INF) in the Turkish economy over the period 1996–2024 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. The bounds test results confirm the existence of a long-run cointegration relationship and indicate that R&D expenditures and GFCF have a positive, statistically significant effect on economic growth, while UNEMP and INF negatively affect growth. The short-run findings suggest that investments stimulate economic growth, while R&D expenditures, despite generating a short-term cost-effect, contribute positively to economic growth in the long run.