Tourism Shocks and Airline Stock Market Performance: An Event Study Analysis

Abstract

This article examines the impact of tourism-related shocks on airline stock market performance. The problem is important because airlines depend strongly on international mobility, passenger confidence, fuel costs, safety perceptions, and public policy decisions. The study is designed for short-run event analysis around clearly identified shock dates, including health crises, geopolitical events, natural disasters, and wider economic policy uncertainty. The theoretical framework links market efficiency, abnormal returns, tourism risk, and investor expectations. Methodologically, the article uses an event study approach in which actual airline stock returns are compared with expected returns estimated through a market model. The difference is measured as abnormal return, while cumulative abnormal return and cumulative average abnormal return are used to evaluate the effect over alternative event windows. Economic policy uncertainty is treated as a conditioning variable rather than as a single event. The article contributes by presenting a transparent framework for comparing different tourism shocks and by clarifying how empirical results should be reported without unsupported statistical claims.